Primera A, Apertura
1,003 matches with Bet365 closing odds, seasons 2023 to 2026. Results use the 90-minute score.
Home win45.6%
Draw31.0%
Away win23.4%
Goals per match2.29
Results by home closing odds
How often the home team actually won at each price level, next to the win chance the odds implied once the bookmaker margin is removed.
The biggest gap between price and result is in the 4.00+ home-odds band: home teams won 23.5% of 51 matches while the odds implied 20.0% (+3.5 points). Small samples move a lot, so treat single-band differences with caution.
| Home odds | Matches | Home won | Implied | Draw | Away won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.29 | 18 | 77.8% | 76.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 84 | 67.9% | 67.3% | 23.8% | 8.3% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 140 | 62.1% | 59.3% | 25.0% | 12.9% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 211 | 51.2% | 51.8% | 32.2% | 16.6% |
| 2.00–2.39 | 229 | 43.7% | 43.3% | 31.0% | 25.3% |
| 2.40–2.99 | 148 | 30.4% | 35.9% | 37.8% | 31.8% |
| 3.00–3.99 | 122 | 27.9% | 28.3% | 35.2% | 36.9% |
| 4.00+ | 51 | 23.5% | 20.0% | 31.4% | 45.1% |
Most common closing prices
| 1 / X / 2 | Matches | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 / 3.50 / 5.75 | 6 | 66.7% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| 1.80 / 3.50 / 4.75 | 6 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 1.67 / 3.60 / 5.25 | 5 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| 1.67 / 3.60 / 5.50 | 5 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| 1.80 / 3.40 / 4.75 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| 1.85 / 3.40 / 4.33 | 5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.20 / 3.10 / 3.50 | 5 | 60.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| 2.20 / 3.30 / 3.40 | 5 | 80.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 / 3.00 / 3.50 | 5 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| 2.55 / 3.10 / 3.00 | 5 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| 1.73 / 3.60 / 5.00 | 4 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| 1.85 / 3.40 / 4.50 | 4 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.91 / 3.30 / 4.50 | 4 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.05 / 3.20 / 3.80 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2.10 / 3.20 / 3.80 | 4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
By season
| Season | Matches | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 341 | 45.5% | 31.4% | 23.2% |
| 2025 | 222 | 44.6% | 30.2% | 25.2% |
| 2024 | 214 | 44.4% | 26.2% | 29.4% |
| 2023 | 226 | 47.8% | 35.8% | 16.4% |