Guides

Short, data-backed explainers built from the SameOdds database.

What are closing odds?Why the last price before kick-off is the most informative number in football betting markets.Implied probability and bookmaker margin explainedHow to turn decimal odds into probabilities and remove the bookmaker's margin, with a worked example.How often do draws happen at each draw price?Actual draw percentages by Bet365 closing draw odds, compared with the probability the odds implied.Home advantage by leagueWhich football competitions have the strongest home advantage? Home, draw and away rates across every league in the database.How often do heavy favourites actually win?Real win rates for football favourites priced below 1.60 at closing, compared with the implied probability.Away underdogs: how often do long shots win?Win rates for away teams priced at 4.00 and above at closing, compared with what the odds implied.How to use SameOddsA quick walkthrough: entering odds, reading the outcome summary, and using nearby prices when a sample is small.