FIFA World Cup

232 matches with Bet365 closing odds, seasons 2018 to 2026. Results use the 90-minute score.

Home win43.1%

Draw25.0%

Away win31.9%

Goals per match2.73

Results by home closing odds

How often the home team actually won at each price level, next to the win chance the odds implied once the bookmaker margin is removed.

The biggest gap between price and result is in the 4.00+ home-odds band: home teams won 17.2% of 64 matches while the odds implied 15.0% (+2.2 points). Small samples move a lot, so treat single-band differences with caution.

Home odds	Matches	Home won	Implied	Draw	Away won
1.01–1.29	28	78.6%	80.5%	17.9%	3.6%
1.30–1.49	25	64.0%	68.5%	28.0%	8.0%
1.50–1.69	24	70.8%	60.4%	25.0%	4.2%
1.70–1.99	25	52.0%	52.0%	32.0%	16.0%
2.00–2.39	21	52.4%	44.5%	14.3%	33.3%
2.40–2.99	24	20.8%	37.0%	33.3%	45.8%
3.00–3.99	21	23.8%	28.1%	42.9%	33.3%
4.00+	64	17.2%	15.0%	18.8%	64.1%

Most common closing prices

1 / X / 2	Matches	Home	Draw	Away
8.50 / 4.50 / 1.40	3	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%
1.10 / 11.00 / 21.00	2	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.18 / 7.00 / 15.00	2	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.20 / 7.00 / 19.00	2	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.27 / 5.75 / 11.00	2	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.36 / 4.75 / 9.00	2	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.75 / 3.50 / 5.00	2	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%
1.80 / 3.50 / 4.50	2	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%
1.80 / 3.60 / 4.50	2	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%
2.45 / 3.10 / 3.20	2	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
3.00 / 3.10 / 2.70	2	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%
4.75 / 3.40 / 1.83	2	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
6.50 / 4.33 / 1.50	2	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%
1.04 / 17.00 / 29.00	1	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.06 / 13.00 / 29.00	1	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%

By season

Season	Matches	Home	Draw	Away
2026	104	44.2%	27.9%	27.9%
2022	64	45.3%	23.4%	31.2%
2018	64	39.1%	21.9%	39.1%