Away underdogs: how often do long shots win?
Win rates for away teams priced at 4.00 and above at closing, compared with what the odds implied.
Big away underdogs rarely win, but they do win. This table groups away teams by closing odds from 4.00 upwards.
| Away odds | Matches | Away won | Implied | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00–4.99 | 11,121 | 20.3% | 21.7% | -1.4 |
| 5.00–6.49 | 8,643 | 16.1% | 17.2% | -1.0 |
| 6.50–8.49 | 5,099 | 11.9% | 13.2% | -1.3 |
| 8.50–11.99 | 3,325 | 7.6% | 9.9% | -2.3 |
| 12.00+ | 2,836 | 3.8% | 6.0% | -2.2 |
Long shots are where the favourite–longshot bias usually appears: prices on outsiders tend to be a little shorter than their real chances. Compare the gap column across bands to see whether that holds in this data.