How often do heavy favourites actually win?
Real win rates for football favourites priced below 1.60 at closing, compared with the implied probability.
Short-priced home favourites win most of the time, but not as often as fans tend to assume. This table covers home teams with closing odds below 1.60.
| Home odds | Matches | Home won | Implied | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01–1.19 | 2,236 | 87.7% | 83.1% | +4.6 |
| 1.20–1.29 | 2,719 | 78.8% | 75.3% | +3.5 |
| 1.30–1.39 | 3,213 | 73.5% | 69.9% | +3.7 |
| 1.40–1.49 | 3,831 | 67.6% | 65.2% | +2.4 |
| 1.50–1.59 | 4,658 | 63.6% | 61.0% | +2.6 |
Even at 1.20 roughly one match in six or seven ends in a draw or an away win. Short odds also mean small returns, so a single upset wipes out several wins.