How often do draws happen at each draw price?
Actual draw percentages by Bet365 closing draw odds, compared with the probability the odds implied.
The draw is the hardest outcome to price. This table groups every match by its closing draw odds and compares how often the match really finished level after 90 minutes with what the odds implied (margin removed).
| Draw odds | Matches | Draws | Implied | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50–2.99 | 3,612 | 33.5% | 32.8% | +0.7 |
| 3.00–3.19 | 9,658 | 31.7% | 30.6% | +1.1 |
| 3.20–3.39 | 17,250 | 30.0% | 28.8% | +1.2 |
| 3.40–3.59 | 17,414 | 28.1% | 27.2% | +0.9 |
| 3.60–3.99 | 20,093 | 25.3% | 25.3% | -0.0 |
| 4.00–4.99 | 16,167 | 21.3% | 22.0% | -0.6 |
| 5.00+ | 9,475 | 13.9% | 15.3% | -1.3 |
A positive gap means draws happened more often than the price suggested. Most of the market sits between 3.00 and 4.00, where samples are largest and the comparison is most reliable.